There will be a dramatic alteration in the role the Centre and the states will play to shape India's fiscal and economic destiny, report Nitin Sethi and Ishan Bakshi.
The BJP's manifesto for UP elections promised many things. But, given the state's precarious financial position, fulfilling these promises is likely to prove tricky, says Ishan Bakshi.
Exemptions, and the fact that farm income is outside the tax net, ensure that India's tax-GDP ratio stays low.
It is difficult to reconcile the GDP numbers with other economic indicators.
RE of GDP for 2015-16 show that the economy grew 7.9% in 2015-16, rather than the earlier estimate of 7.6 per cent.
In his last Budget, Suresh Prabhu, set an ambitious target for capital expenditure.
Leading indicators suggest economic activity has been disrupted after demonetisation.
In the post-demonetisation phase, the govt's tax revenues have ended up soaring in November.
Much of the Q3 data will simply not be available for the CSO to factor in its calculation.
The contraction in November this year is the second biggest fall in the current financial year.
The bigger worry is that its effects could linger well into the next financial year.
With cash -- the primary medium of exchange -- all but disappearing, it is now unlikely that the expected fillip to demand on account of a good monsoon and proceeds from the Seventh Pay Commission payout will materialise.
Months before 8/11, MP, Haryana probed note ban
'We asked them to withdraw these instructions immediately.
'We said, "If you don't withdraw, we are going to give a call that from tomorrow officers will totally boycott these instructions".'
The ripples from November 8 may be seen in next year's state budgets.
The second fortnight of September saw Rs 3 lakh crore of time deposits, something unique, followed by liquidation of Rs 1.2 lakh crpre of these right after.
Some believe the shift to mobile-based transactions will be seamless considering that the urban tele-density is 148%. In rural areas, it is touching 51%. But smartphone penetration in India is a mere 12%. Growth of mobile money has been extremely slow: It is currently 1%.
Much depends on how the liquidity situation evolves over the coming months, with greater clarity expected from the next monetary policy meeting scheduled for December 7.
Lens on rural transactions. Only 38% of branches of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) are in rural areas
Reducing it to 1.3% would lead to savings of Rs 70,000 crore over 5 years
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